WASHINGTON — New polling shows the race for Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat is tight, with Rep. Barry Moore having a slight lead over the Republican field.
The Alabama Poll’s latest statewide survey revealed Moore leading the GOP candidates for U.S. Senate at 22.8%, followed by Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall at 20.7% and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson at 19%. Businessman Rodney Walker sits at 3%.
The poll shows the biggest improvement for Hudson, who is now close behind the two leading candidates, after polling at just 8% in February.
Marshall has seen the biggest loss in support from 37% in August compared to nearly 21% in March. But Michael Lowry, Alabama Poll founder, contends that Marshall’s movement comes from default name-ID support to those who are truly behind the attorney general despite outside spending and a presidential endorsement of another candidate.
The race is still anyone’s for the taking, with about a third of likely Republican primary voters still undecided, according to the poll conducted in March of 600 likely voters with a 4% margin of error.
Moore is the only GOP candidate to have outside spending supporting his bid, totalling more than $6 million. That includes a $1.25 million ad buy from the Club for Growth PAC, which endorsed the congressman
In January, President Donald Trump endorsed Moore for Alabama’s open Senate seat to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor. The Alabama Poll shows Trump’s endorsement of Moore had a 28% net effect last month.
Overall, the president’s endorsement in the state has a 34% net effect compared to 47% in August. The decline isn’t related to Trump’s approval in Alabama, which sits above 82% in March. Instead, it reflects the next phase of the race where voters are turning their attention to the individual candidates instead of the endorser, Lowry argued in his analysis.
Recent polling commissioned by the Club for Growth PAC showed Moore with a 5-point lead over the other GOP candidates.
Lieutenant Governor race: Allen leads even with Trump’s endorsement of Wahl
Despite receiving Trump’s endorsement, former ALGOP Chairman John Wahl sits in third behind Secretary of State Wes Allen and Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate in the Republican field to be Alabama’s next lieutenant governor. But the race remains open with about two-thirds of voters still undecided, according to the new polling.
As of the March survey, Allen sits at 18.7%, Pate at 8.8% and Wahl with 7%. Commercial real estate developer Nicole Jones Wadsworth sits at 5.3%. Allen’s support fell from last month, while Pate’s gained.
Trump endorsed Wahl a day before he entered the race. Wahl joined the primary field on the last day of qualifying. But that hasn’t pushed him to the top of the pack as he carries a net negative favorability rating, according to the poll.
“The conventional wisdom says a presidential endorsement settles a primary. The lieutenant governor’s race says otherwise,” Lowry said.
Economy remains voters’ top issue
More than 78% of likely Republican primary voters said economic issues are the most pressing problem in the state, with concerns about grocery and food costs topping the list. Voters are also concerned about utility prices, followed by health care bills, insurance costs and gas prices.
But most Republicans still hold an optimistic view about the direction of Alabama, with nearly 59% of likely voters saying the state is on the right track, according to the poll.
“Seventy-eight percent name an economic issue as the most important problem, and half cite groceries specifically,” Lowry said. “No candidate in any of these races has seized that opening yet and claimed those voters.”
Down-ballot races
In the Republican primary for Alabama attorney general, former Alabama Supreme Court Associate Justice Jay Mitchell leads the field at 12.3%. Katherine Robertson, current chief counsel for Attorney General Marshall, is at 9.8% and Blount County District Attorney Pamela Casey sits at 9.3%.
But the race is still wide open, with more than 68% of voters still undecided.
For commissioner of agriculture, Christina McInnis leads for the first time at 9%. Jack Williams sits at 8.8% and Corey Hill at 7%. But three-quarters of voters have yet to make up their minds in the race.
The primaries are May 19.