MONTGOMERY, Ala. — With Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District being redrawn last year to increase its Black population by order of a federal court, a Democratic candidate is now favored to win the seat this November, a dramatic shift from Republicans’ near-dominant control of the district since 1965.
A number of experts in political science, however, suggest that the race’s outcome is far from certain, and several factors could lead to an upset and a Republican victory in District 2 come November.
“Just because the district leans Democrat doesn’t mean it will vote Democrat,” said Joseph Aistrup, a political science professor at Auburn University. “I think the Republicans have a fighting chance.
“Now it’s a long shot, I would say seven out of 10 times a Democrat is going to win, but look at the situation here: (the Republican candidate) is well funded, and there’s a lot of Republican money coming in to make sure this district remains red.”
The two candidates in the race, Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican Caroleene Dobson, now their respective party’s nominees after a competitive primary election, have both leaned heavily into national issues such as reproductive rights or combating inflation, respectively.
Those national issues, according to Regina Wagner, assistant professor at University of Alabama’s Department of Political Science, will likely factor heavily into the race for District 2.
“My expectation would be that the issues that are generally going to be at the forefront across the state and country are going to matter here too, and it’s going to be a question of which issues break through more,” Wagner told Alabama Daily News recently.
Which candidate would primarily benefit from running on national issues, however, depends on the topic, according to Aistrup.
As it relates to the matter of abortion, Aistrup said Figures, who has advocated for a return to the standard in place under Roe v. Wade, would likely benefit electorally on that issue, though not to such a degree as to decide the race.
“That cultural divide is pretty much one that’s already well defined, that issue isn’t going to change this election,” Aistrup told ADN. “If you look at the polls, that issue right now is cutting against Republicans generically speaking, and probably in the 2nd District as well.”
A national issue that would be a greater factor, Aistrup argued, was which presidential candidate is leading their respective ticket.
“I see much more the top of the ticket being the big influence on this race, and the top of the ticket is simply that battle between (Joe) Biden and (Donald) Trump,” he said.
“You look at those two excitement levels, and the Democrats are lower right now than the Republicans, so I think that’s something that cuts against Figures in this race. That’s the key national issue that’s going to affect this race.”
Enthusiasm for Biden’s campaign among Democratic voters has dwindled over the years. In January, a Suffolk University poll showed that just 18% of Democratic primary voters indicated they were “very enthusiastic” to vote for Biden in November, compared to 44% of GOP voters for Trump.
Enthusiasm for Biden’s campaign has only shrunk further since the president’s debate performance last month that many Democratic leaders and operatives took as a clear sign of the president’s declining mental sharpness, some of whom have called on Biden to drop out of the race.
Published after the debate, another Suffolk University poll found that more than four out of 10 Democratic voters believed Biden should be replaced as their party’s presidential nominee.
That lack of enthusiasm for Biden’s campaign among Democrats, should he remain on the ticket, could also suppress voter turnout, Aistrup said, something that would likely hurt Figures more than Dobson.
“I think Dobson is the definite beneficiary of low turnout, largely because I think her supporters are much more likely to turn out in high numbers,” he said.
“If there’s not a lot of excitement for the Democratic ticket at the top, which there doesn’t appear to be in the state of Alabama, that’s a factor that tends to depress turnout a little bit. I think the situation in the Democratic Party at the top of the ballot is problematic for Democrats across the country, not just in the 2nd Congressional District.”
That analysis of Biden’s impact on the race for District 2 was shared by Jess Brown, who taught political science at Athens State University for 26 years. Brown said that voter turnout would be “critical to both campaigns,” and that Figures’ election prospects would likely benefit from Biden stepping out of the race.
“Trump’s presence on the ballot will virtually ensure a healthy turnout by the GOP base,” Brown told ADN last week.
“Biden is not a comparable catalyst for African-American turnout, but if the Democrats change horses and nominate (Vice President Kamala) Harris, the dynamics of African-American voter turnout will change and probably be increased slightly. Figures needs Harris as the nominee; Biden gives his campaign no real advantage.”
In total, 57,520 Democratic voters cast their ballot during the March primary election in AL-2 compared to 57,055 Republicans, a difference of less than 500 votes. The subsequent primary runoff election that saw Figures selected had 35,916 Democratic voters participate, but only 25,142 Republicans.
So-called kitchen table issues centering around the increasing costs of rent, mortgages and groceries, could cut against Figures as well, Aistrup argued.
“For the average voter, they’ve seen their rent prices go up pretty dramatically, and I think that hurts Biden,” Aistrup said.
“For Americans, I think that their relative feeling about the economy is that right now, it’s not as good as they’d like it to be, so I think the economy works against Figures, generally speaking, because it’s working against Democrats nationwide.”
Despite the factors that give Republicans a chance to hold the seat, all experts were in agreement that Figures still holds a moderate-to-strong edge in the race, in large part due to the new district’s past voting history and demographics.
Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District as it was drawn in 2021 had a Black-voting-age population of around 30%, but was redrawn to have a BVAP of just over 50% last year. Past election data shows that with the district’s current makeup, a Black-prefered candidate would have won in 15 of the past 17 election contests.
That data, Aistrup said, “shows that the Democrats generally will win this district.”
“Montgomery, Macon and Blount counties, those are traditionally pretty strong Democratic areas, and I think what (past election data) says is that it is a Black-opportunity district, it was drawn that way, and so the chances are good that a Democrat is going to win this district,” he said.
Brown also agreed that the prospects were good for a Figures victory, and said that he believed the district “might lean Democrat by three-to-six percentage points.” Still, Brown said that Alabama’s strong racially polarized voting history could complicate things.
“In my view, Figures will need to attract approximately 12 to 20 percent of the white vote to ensure a comfortable victory,” he said.
“This may be difficult (as) there is a history in some of these counties of extreme racial polarization in voting. Of course, the flip side of the coin is how many African Americans will vote for Dobson.”
Whether Figures or Dobson will win in November is still up for question, though if Dobson should beat the odds and defeat her opponent, Aistrup said it would be a bellwether for Republican success nationwide.
“If Dobson wins, it will be a landslide for the Republicans all over this country,” he said.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has AL-2 rated as a “likely Democrat” pickup.
“She’s not high on the list of Republicans that are likely winners, but if she does win, it means that the Republicans are going to walk away from this election with a 30-or 40-seat majority. If she crosses that bar, there’s a lot of other Republicans crossing that bar before her.”