MONTGOMERY, Ala. – A new voter survey from The Alabama Poll shows a tight race between John Wahl and Wes Allen in the Republican runoff for lieutenant governor.
If the election were held today, 41.9% of voters would choose Allen and 38.4% would choose Wahl, according to the survey results. A full 19.6% of voters remain undecided in the runoff, which is just two weeks away.
During the May 19 primary election, those numbers were reversed: Wahl, the former ALGOP chairman, came away with 40.6% of the vote and Allen, the current secretary of state, won 38%. Four other candidates combined for the remaining 21.4%.
Alabama Poll Founder Michael Lowry said that although Allen leads, some data favors Wahl in the race. In a memo prepared for Alabama Poll subscribers, Lowry pointed out that among those who say they are definitely voting, Wahl leads Allen 42.5% to 40%. He called it “headline strength” versus “structural strength.”
“The headline strength is good – if those folks come out to vote. Unfortunately those demographics supporting Wes tend to be less intense voters who are more likely to stay home for the runoff,” Lowry told Alabama Daily News. “So in this case, despite being behind on the headline number, John is actually leading in that he can count on his voters going to the polls in two weeks because that’s what they’ve done historically.”
Lowry also commented on the high number of undecided voters in this race, even after a primary election has taken place.
“I think the campaigns in general have missed the mark on what matters to voters this cycle. They’ve run campaigns using the old playbooks while voters have moved on and are looking for something else. As a result they stayed on the undecided ledger waiting for someone to connect with them.”
Breaking it down regionally, Allen leads in the state’s largest markets: Birmingham by 8.7 points, Huntsville by 16.3 points and Montgomery by 26.3 points. Wahl leads in Dothan by 33.8 points, Mobile by 13 points and in rural parts of the state.
The poll also tested whether and to what extent the endorsement of President Donald Trump impacts voters’ choice of candidates. When asked, 48.1% of Republican voters said it makes it more likely they would support the Trump-endorsed candidate, 18.1% said it would make them less likely to support that candidate, and 33% said it would make no difference.
Trump thrust Wahl into the race just before qualifying closed in January with a surprise endorsement.
Among those voters who are more likely to support a Trump-backed candidate, Wahl leads by 23 points over Allen. Among voters who said it makes no difference, Allen leads by 16.8 points. Among those who say Trump’s endorsement makes them less likely to support a candidate, Allen leads by 48.8 points.
With the race still up for grabs, Lowry, a longtime campaign operative, said candidates should focus on the fundamentals in the final two weeks.
“Candidates have to work to connect with voters,” he said. “Talk to them about who they are as candidates, what they believe in, and most importantly, what they plan to do to help the voter. It’s basic campaign work – blocking and tackling. Demonstrate why you deserve the job and therefore their vote.”
The Alabama Poll surveyed 600 likely Republican Primary voters on May 28th for a margin of error of ±4%.