WASHINGTON — Political newcomer Jared Hudson has a nearly 10-point lead over Rep. Barry Moore in the Republican runoff race for Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat, a new poll finds.
The Alabama Poll shows Hudson leads with 48.7% of the vote, while Moore captures 39.2% of voters in a statewide survey of 600 likely runoff voters conducted on May 28. Twelve percent of voters are undecided ahead of the June 16 runoff election.
The findings mark the first time Hudson, an ex-Navy SEAL, has led in public polling in Alabama’s U.S. Senate race. Moore and Hudson earned their spots in the GOP runoff, winning 39.2% and 25.6% of the vote, respectively, in the May 19 primary. The two beat out Attorney General Steve Marshall, who garnered 24.5% of the vote in the primary. The Republicans are competing to succeed U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor.
Michael Lowry, founder of the Alabama Poll, told Alabama Daily News that Hudson’s success as an outsider candidate stems from Alabama voters’ “fatigue” of incumbents.
“Hudson becomes the candidate who potentially can deliver to them the things that they perceive they’re not getting from their current elected officials,” Lowry said.
The Trump factor
Throughout the campaign, Moore has relied heavily on President Donald Trump’s endorsement to propel his Senate bid. While it proved successful in getting him to the top runoff spot, Lowry said the congressman needs to go beyond that and “connect the dots” to secure the nomination.
“This is a situation where (Moore) has to tell voters why he deserves the job, not just because President Trump endorsed him,” Lowry told ADN.
President Donald Trump remains widely popular among Republican voters in Alabama with an 83% approval rating, according to the new poll. The president’s endorsement also has a net positive of nearly 30% in the state.
So, if Trump chooses to be actively involved in Moore’s campaign leading up to June 16, that could put the Enterprise Republican over the edge in the runoff.
“Depending on what his level of investment is, he can rescue Barry Moore, but right now… (Moore) is not doing it on his own,” Lowry said.
Moore also has the support of deep-pocketed groups, including the Washington-based Club for Growth’s Super PAC and a pro-crypto super PAC. But Lowry said that money needs to be spent on explaining to voters why Moore should win the runoff, not just that he’s the Trump-endorsed candidate.
Moore and Hudson’s coalitions differ
Moore’s deepest support comes frome Trump Republicans, who strongly favor the president, and voters who are most likely to head to the polls on June 16. The congressman remains dominant in the 1st Congressional District in south Alabama, his home district. But because of Hudson’s nearly 10-point lead in the poll, Lowry said Moore’s base has to turn out in very high numbers in the runoff to lock in the nomination.
Hudson voters tend to be younger, more moderate Republicans and hail from the Birmingham area, where the Jefferson County candidate is from. Since the GOP primary voters who favor Hudson tend to be less likely to vote, Lowry said Hudson needs to do “good old-fashioned blocking and tackling.”
“Know who your voters are, have a way to contact them, and make sure they turn out the day of the election,” he told ADN.
Economic issues remain the top concern for Alabama Republican primary voters, with 78% of polled voters describing that as their dominant concern this year.
Yet neither Moore nor Hudson has widely invoked inflation or the cost of living as part of their appeal to voters. Lowry said if a candidate addresses that issue, it could prove beneficial to bring voters to their campaign.
The Alabama Poll indicates that while Hudson and Moore have comparable approval ratings, a greater number of voters hold an unfavorable opinion of the Moore, who is more well-known. Hudson’s rating benefits from more voters being unaware of him or his stances.
Out of the 600 likely voters, 58% have a favorable view of Hudson, 12% have an unfavorable opinion, 19% have no opinion and 11% have never heard of him.
For Moore, 56% of respondents have a favorable view of the congressman, 28% hold an unfavorable opinion, 13% have no opinion and 4% have never heard of him.
Whoever prevails on June 16 will face the winner of the Democratic primary between Everett Wess and Dakarai Larriett in the general election.
The poll’s margin of error is ±4%.