PRESENTED BY the Stop The HIT Coalition

Good morning! 24 hours from now polls will be open for the 2018 General Election. Here’s your Daily News for Monday, November 5.

1. One more day.

• Few surprises, probably.
• Caroline Beck put together an excellent Weekend Digest that runs through all the election stories and information you’re likely to need from a statewide perspective. Even the weather!
• It is worth a read HERE, and make sure you are receiving Caroline’s Weekend Digest each Sunday.

• An interesting thing is happening: the midterm congressional races are getting even tighter.
• The latest WaPo/Suffolk poll has Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot at 7 points, down from 11 in September and 14 in August.
• The latest NBC/WSJ poll has Democrats generic ballot lead down to 6 points.
• And a Politico/Morning Consult poll had Democrat’s lead down to FOUR points.
• As it happens, 7 points is about exactly what Democrats need to win the House, historically speaking.
• It’s why Nate Silver is saying Republicans basically need a systematic sampling error in the polling to retain the majority – but that is completely plausible!
• The New York Times has been continuously polling the hottest House and Senate races and you can see those updated results one by one HERE.
• Come Wednesday morning, we could be talking about a two or three seat House majority for either side. Fun with coalition governments!

2. Alabama Senate Ratings.

• Of the 35 seats in the Alabama State Senate, 15 are being contested on Tuesday’s General Election Ballot.
• That’s not to say this cycle hasn’t been competitive in the Senate. There were some heated races in places where the primary all but decides who the senator will be: Garlan Gudger knocked off incumbent Sen. Paul Bussman, Chris Elliot won an uber-competitive primary down in deep-red Baldwin County, and David Burkett defeated Montgomery Rep. John Knight like four times.
• Republicans will certainly hold on to their solid majority in the Senate. The question is whether they add to it, hold pat, or lose a seat?
• Republican Donnie Chesteen replacing Independent Sen. Harri Anne Smith in Dothan means President Pro Tem Del Marsh and Majority Leader Greg Reed will add one more to their caucus. But, they need to fend off another independent in Craig Ford in the SD10 race and prevent incumbent Sen. Larry Stutts from losing his seat to Democratic Rep. Johnny Mack Morrow in SD6.
• Take a look at my ratings for Alabama Senate races and let me know your thoughts. Also included are links to the informative Senate profile stories from Will Whatley and Caroline Beck.
• I very much appreciate all the feedback I got for the House ratings, which you can find HERE.

A Message from Stop The HIT Coalition

• Did you know Alabama small businesses and middle-class families will be hit with a new tax on January 1, 2020?
• Absent immediate Senate action, the 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) will begin driving up the cost of care for hardworking Alabamians by as much as $450 in 2020.
• Senator Doug Jones can help address skyrocketing healthcare costs by co-sponsoring bipartisan legislation (S. 3063) to suspend the Health Insurance Tax in 2020.
• Ask Senator Jones to stop the HIT on Alabama small businesses and hardworking families.

3. Getting into the jobs report.

• The American economy is really, really strong right now.
• Employers added more than 250,000 jobs in October, defying expectations.
• Unemployment remains at 3.7 percent – the lowest level in 50 years.
• Average hourly wages shot up by 3.1 percent, the steepest spike in pay in almost ten years.
• Consumer confidence is crazy good. A four percent uptick in consumer spending in Q3 helped grow the economy by 3.4 percent – again defying expectations.
• Read more details about the surging economy and what it means HERE.
• People vote with their wallets, right? Doesn’t that mean Republicans are safe?
• In Alabama, probably so. A booming economy and the absence of a dramatic scandal will help Republicans sail to victory.
• But nationally, there’s a lot more to pay attention to. In the latest WaPo/ABC News poll, only 15 percent say the economy is their top voting issue.
• Another USA Today/Suffolk poll showed the economy was fourth on a list of issues important to voters.
• In these final hours, President Trump and Congressional Republicans are casting the election as a choice to continue the success or “take a wrecking ball” to the economy.

4. Matthew Stokes: It’s almost over, but really it’s not.

• Ever been told that this is the most important election in your lifetime?
• Wait. Are you told that every election cycle by candidates who need votes and pundits who need ratings?
• Alabama Daily News Columnist Matthew Stokes has, and in his almost 20 years of voting, the stakes somehow keep getting raised.
• And sure, this election is important, he writes, and things will change as a result. But there’s a lot more to it.
• As important as voting is, perhaps it shouldn’t be sold as our only civic responsibility.
• An excerpt:

• Man, that’s such a good point.
• Read Matthew’s full column HERE.

5. News Briefs.

• A 9-year-old Prattville girl has died in an apparent accidental shooting.
• Autauga County Sheriff Joe Sedinger says the Prattville girl apparently shot herself with a handgun Sunday afternoon.
• She was flown to a hospital where she died from her wounds. Authorities haven’t released the girl’s name pending the notification of relatives.
• Read more HERE.

• One of the state’s biggest local elections on the ballot this year is Jefferson County District Attorney.
• The position has been in upheaval the last few years, and Both Republican Mike Anderton and Democrat Danny Car have each held the job at different times, Carr temporarily appointed by a JeffCo judge and Anderton appointed by Gov. Kay Ivey.
• Now they’re running against each other and it’s a pretty important race.
• Read more in a thorough profile piece from WBRC’s Beth Shelburne HERE.

• The state’s business community is solidly behind Gov. Kay Ivey over challenger Walt Maddox, both in financial and stated support.
• Mike Cason has a story today detailing how businesses chose sides this election.
• It’s both from a collective stand point – The Business Council of Alabama, Alabama Farmers Federation, Realtors, Retail, etc. are all on board – and that of individual businesses – big companies like Alabama Power & Great Southern Wood are among her biggest donors.
• Read Mike’s full story HERE.

Headlines.

Front Pages (images link to newspaper websites, which you should visit and patronize)