POINT CLEAR, Ala. — To win in November, Kamala Harris should focus on voters in the Rust Belt swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
For Donald Trump to win, he needs to avoid a personality contest and instead stay focused on issues such as inflation and immigration.
Democrat pollster Kevin Akins of the Montgomery-based Impact Research and GOP pollster Jim McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates broke down some of the new math and issues in the presidential race at the Business Council of Alabama’s Government Affairs Conference Saturday. President Joe Biden bowing out last month has allowed Harris, the current vice president and presumptive Democratic nominee, to bring some new energy and potential voters to the contest.
National polling shows a five- to seven-point uptick in Democrat enthusiasm since Harris became their candidate, Atkins said.
“Strong donor engagement, strong base excitement has really been what (Harris) has brought to the table,” he said.
Democrats want to vote for Harris, not just vote against former President Trump, Atkins said.
Trump and Republicans need to stay focused on topics that matter to voters, McLaughlin said.
“The more it becomes a personality contest and not about issues, I think the (better off Democrats are),” McLaughlin said. “I think the more we talk about issues, the better off it’s going to be for Republicans.”
Both men agreed it’s a tight race with less than three months until election day. McLaughlin said his firm’s recent polling had Trump up by 2 points, similar to where it was before the Trump-Biden debate in late June that led to Biden exiting the race.
The best path to the White House for Democrats is through the Rust Belt states, Atkins said, especially Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, swing states where both parties are “emptying the war chests” right now.
Trump’s advantage is a solidified base, Adkins agreed, which is even more galvanized after the July assassination attempt.
Trump could win on the electoral vote, not the popular vote, as he did in 2016, McLaughlin said.
“If he loses the national vote by only two or three points, chances are he’s probably going to win,” he said.
Other states in play include Michigan and Georgia, which is basically a tie now.
Trump and Harris are expected to debate on Sept. 10. Atkins said swing voters will cast a ballot for the candidate they think will help their economic situation. And three months before the election, there is time for national and world events to impact the election.
“You’re going to see a ride like you’ve never seen over the next 87 days,” McLaughlin said.
He’s often asked what’s more important, “the base or the swing?”
Both, he said.
“Neither party has a big enough base to win the election by itself,” he said.
Atkins said November could see a higher turnout than 2020.
He also discussed how the energy Harris’ campaign has could impact the much-watched Second Congressional District race in central and southern Alabama. Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican Caroleene Dobson are both first-time candidates for the court-drawn district. He described the district as “pale blue” and “swingy as ever depending on one election to another.”
He praised Dobson’s fundraising but said given the presidential election year dynamics, he’d rather be Figures in this race.
According to campaign finance reports through June, Figures’ campaign had $301,948 in cash on hand and had spent $248,258 during the second quarter of 2024 and $584,224 in total. Dobson had $471,813 in cash on hand, had spent $542,988 during the second quarter, and spent $1.73 million in total on the contest.
“It is exciting to have a competitive race to watch here this year and certainly one I think we watch down to the wire,” Atkins said.