By TODD STACY, Alabama Daily News
A new Cygnal poll conducted for Alabama Daily News and Gray Television shows all Republican statewide candidates winning a majority of general election voters and with sizable leads over their Democratic opponents.
This probabilistic survey was conducted October 27 – 29, 2022 with 616 likely general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±3.94%. Known registered voters were interviewed via interactive voice response and text message. This survey was weighted to a likely general election voter universe.
Governor Kay Ivey is setting the pace for the field, leading with 59.5% of the vote to Democrat Yolanda Flowers 25.3% and Libertarian James “Jimmy” Blake’s 4.7%, while 10.5% of voters remained undecided.
Close behind Ivey with similar numbers are Greg Cook, Republican nominee for Alabama Supreme Court, Attorney General Steve Marshall and Katie Britt, Republican nominee for U.S. Senate.
Britt was the choice of 57.1% of voters, compared to 27.5% for Democrat Will Boyd and 6.3% for Libertarian John Sophocleus, with 9.1% undecided.
Marshall leads Democrat Wendell Major 57.9% to 29.7%, with 12.4% remaining undecided in the race.
Cook leads Democrat Anita Kelly 58% to 30.2%, with 11.8% undecided.
State Rep. Wes Allen, Republican nominee for Secretary of State had the smallest advantage but still saw a majority among voters, leading with 51.7% to Democrat Pamela Laffitte’s 29.6% and Libertarian Jason “Matt” Shelby’s 4.6%, with 14.1% undecided.
The survey did not test each congressional district, but did ask voters what party they plan on supporting in the 2022 midterm elections that will decide control of Congress. Unsurprisingly, Republicans held a significant advantage statewide, with 62.4% of voters saying they’ll support the GOP candidate with 30.7% saying they’ll support the Democratic candidate, while 6.8% remain undecided.
Interestingly, the survey also tested how many voters would plan to vote a straight-party ticket. Alabama allows voters to check one box at the top of the ballot to cast votes for the entire slate of candidates of the selected party. Straight ticket voting is now a major advantage for Republicans whereas it was originally an advantage for Democrats when they dominated elections decades ago.
A full 53.4% of voters say they plan to vote a straight Republican ticket, compared to 24.4% saying they’ll vote a straight Democratic ticket and 2.3% saying they’ll vote straight Libertarian. Just 15.7% of voters said they do not plan to vote a straight part ticket and 4.2% remained unsure.
Several constitutional amendments are on the general election ballot this year along with a plan to recompile and reorganize the document itself. Cygnal tested how voters are likely to vote on the amendments by simply reading the text that appears on the ballot.
On Amendment 1, better known as Aniah’s Law, 66.6% of voters say they plan to approve the amendment, compared to just 12.3% who said they’ll vote no and 21% saying they’re unsure.
On Amendment 2, which is needed to allow local governments to work with private entities to expand access to Broadband internet, 56% of voters said they support it while 13.2% said they wouldn’t and 30.8% remained unsure.
Finally, on recompiling the 1901 Constitution and removing racist language from the document, 53.8% of voters say they’ll vote to approve that plan, while 15.5% of voters said they’d vote against it and 30.7% remained unsure.
The Cygnal poll also looked at the general favorability ratings of notable politicians, including the president, the governor, the former president and two potential contenders for future higher office.
Unsurprisingly, President Joe Biden is deeply underwater in this right-leaning state, with just 30% of voters having a favorable opinion and 66.3% having an unfavorable one. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump is the opposite, enjoying a 59.3% favorability rating compared to 36.6% who view him unfavorably.
Gov. Kay Ivey’s approval closely tracks her ballot test number, with 59.8% of voters having a favorable opinion compared to 34.6% having an unfavorable one.
Testing favorability among Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth and Attorney General Steve Marshall is interesting given their potential to run for higher office in four years (or perhaps sooner). More voters know who Marshall is both on the favorable and unfavorable side, but neither are very well known among the Alabama electorate.
The following is a list of names of various people who may have been mentioned in the news recently. For each one, please indicate if you have heard of the person and if you have, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If you haven’t heard of a name, choose so.