While most of the attention in Alabama’s 2026 primary has centered on the U.S. Senate race – and the $6 million question of whether outside money can buy a nomination – two statewide races are sitting wide open, virtually uncontested in the advertising arena, and ripe for the kind of movement that a single well-placed television buy could produce. The March 2026 Alabama Poll data on the Attorney General and Commissioner of Agriculture races should be required reading for anyone who follows politics in the state.
In the Attorney General’s race, three candidates are locked in a statistical tie: Jay Mitchell at 12.3 percent, Katherine Robertson at 9.8 percent, and Pamela Casey at 9.3 percent. The margin of error is ±4.0 percent. All three are functionally even. And 68.5 percent of likely Republican primary voters are undecided. Let that number sink in. Nearly seven out of ten voters have not chosen a candidate for the state’s chief law enforcement officer.
The Commissioner of Agriculture race is even more open. Christina McInnis leads for the first time at 9.0 percent, followed by Jack Williams at 8.8 percent and Corey Hill at 7.0 percent, with 75.2 percent undecided. Three-quarters of the electorate is available. McInnis has reversed the August standings when Williams led – and she did it with minimal spending. That tells you how fluid these races remain.
The Alabama Poll has tracked these races across four consecutive surveys. The data in the down-ballot contests tells a story about the extraordinary leverage that advertising and voter contact will have in the final stretch of this primary.
Consider the contrast with the Senate race. Over $6 million in outside spending has accompanied Barry Moore’s movement from 16 to 22.8 percent – a gain of 6.8 points at roughly $950,000 per percentage point. That is the cost of moving voters in a race where candidates have established favorability, where an endorsement has been deployed, and where the advertising environment is saturated in support of one candidate.
Now consider the Attorney General’s race. Sixty-eight and a half percent undecided. No candidate above 12.3 percent. Minimal paid advertising deployed. In this environment, the first candidate to reach voters with a sustained, professional advertising campaign is not spending $950,000 per point. That candidate is spending a fraction of that – because every dollar goes into a universe of voters who have not yet formed an opinion about any candidate in the race. That is the most efficient advertising environment in Alabama politics right now.
The same principle applies to Commissioner of Agriculture, where 75.2 percent undecided means the field is essentially a blank canvas. A candidate who can get on television – or execute a disciplined digital and mail campaign – before the competition does will have an outsized impact on a race where single-digit movement could be the difference between first and third place.
This is not speculation. It is a well-established principle of campaign advertising: the marginal return on the first dollar spent in a low-information race dramatically exceeds the marginal return on the next dollar spent in a saturated race. The Senate primary is saturated. The Lieutenant Governor’s race will get there. The AG and Agriculture races are wide open. The strategic implication is worth considering: the Senate race will absorb millions in spending while races where a fraction of that investment could be decisive remain virtually untouched.
The Attorney General’s race deserves particular attention because of what it signals about the general election. Alabama’s Attorney General is not a ceremonial office. It is the office that litigates against federal overreach, defends state law, and sets enforcement priorities on everything from consumer protection to immigration cooperation. The Republican primary winner in this race will almost certainly be the next Attorney General. The fact that 68.5 percent of primary voters have not yet engaged with this decision is a problem – not just for the candidates, but for the quality of the outcome.
Mitchell, Robertson, and Casey each bring different professional backgrounds and legal experience to the race. But with nearly seven in ten voters unaware or uncommitted, the contest is less about credentials at this point and more about who can reach voters first. Earned media – press coverage, debate performances, editorial board endorsements –matter more than normal in a low-spending race. So will organizational strength: the ability to turn out supporters in a low-attention primary where casual voters may skip down-ballot races entirely.
In the Agriculture Commissioner race, McInnis’s movement from behind Williams in August to a narrow lead in March is instructive. It demonstrates that even modest campaign activity can produce real movement in a race where voters are genuinely persuadable. Williams’s slip and McInnis’s rise happened without significant advertising – meaning both shifts were driven by retail politics, organizational work, and earned media. That dynamic will intensify as the primary approaches.
The broader lesson from the March Alabama Poll is one of opportunity cost. The overwhelming majority of political investment in this cycle has flowed to the Senate race, where diminishing returns have set in, while down-ballot races that will shape state governance for the next four years remain wide open. The AG’s race and the Agriculture Commissioner’s race are not sideshows. They are the offices that will directly affect law enforcement priorities and agricultural policy in a state where farming remains a $70 billion industry.
The most efficient campaign dollars in Alabama right now are not being spent in the Senate race. They are being spent – or more precisely, not being spent – in the races just below it on the ballot. Whoever figures that out first wins.
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Methodology: The Alabama Poll surveyed n=600 likely May 2026 Republican Primary voters statewide on March 22–24, 2026 via multi-modal approach (live telephone and text-to-web). Margin of error ±4.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Michael T. Lowry is the founder and principal of The Alabama Poll and the founder of Backstop Strategies, a Washington, D.C.-based government affairs firm. A native Alabamian, he has more than 30 years of experience in politics and government and most recently served as chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Robert Aderholt.