WASHINGTON — In the final week before Election Day, millions of dollars worth of political ads flooded the airwaves in Alabama’s increasingly competitive, redrawn 2nd Congressional District.
A day before the election, a nonpartisan election forecaster, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, shifted the race in Democrats’ favor, rating it as “leans Democratic” after previously having it in the “toss-up” category. The Alabama Legislature redrew the district this year to make it friendlier for Republicans.
Throughout the past few months, the analysis has continued to move the contest between incumbent U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Mobile, and Republican opponent State Rep. Rhett Marques of Enterprise towards Democrats. The forecaster initially rated the new district “likely Republican” during the summer.
President Donald Trump would have won the district by 14 points in 2024.
But backlash to the upending of the Voting Rights Act and a tough economic environment have created a tight race. Outside groups have responded. Nearly $13 million has been spent on advertising during the general election and more than $14 million throughout the entire cycle, according to AdImpact.
In the final week alone, about $5 million in ads have hit the airwaves from Montgomery to the Wiregrass.
Democrats have maintained a large spending advantage over Republicans since the August special primary, spending about $8.2 million compared to GOP groups at $4.8 million, according to AdImpact data.
Final ads reveal closing measure
Figures’ campaign final broadcast ad, which launched Thursday, highlights Republican voters who plan to vote for the Democratic congressman this year.
“In the past I’ve supported Republicans, but this year I’m voting for Shomari Figures,” the ad states. “He’s focused on fixing the economy. Shomari says it’s time to lower costs, lower taxes, and lower the debt, and Shomari wants to restore funding to Medicaid, protect Social Security, and stop nursing homes and hospitals from closing.”
By focusing on economic issues such as gas prices and tariffs, Figures has worked to appeal to a wide swath of voters. On the campaign trail, he is quick to point out that he’s courting all voters, not just those tied to a specific party.
The Alabama Democrat’s most recent ad airing in the Dothan market aims to tap into voters’ dissatisfaction with the cost of living in deep-red areas like the Wiregrass. Affordability is the top concern of Alabama voters heading into the midterms.
On the Republican side, a super PAC aligned with Marques, Alabama Christian Conservatives, released a final ad Thursday attacking Figures over his connection to the Democratic Party.
The broadcast spot, running in Montgomery and Dothan, links Figures to the Green New Deal, even though legislation tied to that framework has not been voted on during his first term. But the ad warns voters the Green New Deal could gain traction should Democrats win control of the U.S. House.
“$5 gas forever. That’s what you get if Shomari Figures and AOC take power and pass the Green New Deal,” the ad’s narrator states. “Figures voted against American energy and against your tax cuts. Shomari Figures and his socialist squad, Alabama can’t afford them.”
The ad, like others produced by Republican groups during the cycle, features pictures of Democratic U.S. Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.
Airing in Montgomery and Dothan, the ad frames the 2nd Congressional District race as a national fight against the progressive wing of the Democratic Party since the race is seen as pivotal to who controls the U.S. House next year. That argument closely resembles messaging by Marques and other Republicans.
While Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race toward Democrats on Monday, another forecaster, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, has kept the contest rated as “Leans Republican” ahead of the election.
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
You can view other notable ads from the 2nd District race here.