DOTHAN, Ala. — In deep-red south Alabama, hundreds of Democratic supporters packed a room 12 days before the midterms, collectively hoping U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures would defy the odds and win a district Republicans redrew this year to give their party an advantage.
With servings of banana pudding and snacks in hand, voters filed into seats last week at The Forum in Dothan during their lunch breaks to hear from Figures and national Democrats like the U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and former U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., about the stakes of the state’s most competitive congressional race, the 2nd District.
“When’s the last time y’all been to a rally like this in Dothan?” Figures asked the crowd in Houston County, which went for President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election by about 48 points.
As Figures traverses the counties of the new district, stretching from the Wiregrass to Montgomery, he’s hoping that dissatisfaction with high prices this cycle and anger over redistricting will bring together a large enough coalition to propel him to reelection in a district Trump would have won by about 14 points in 2024.
On Tuesday, a week out from the election, a nonpartisan political forecaster, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, shifted the race in Democrats’ favor from “leans Republican” to “toss-up,” giving Figures his best prediction yet that he could pull off a win. Separately, the Cook Political Report on Friday moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
“They took a pen, they carved it up, they carved out some communities of people who look like me,” Figures said at the Dothan rally. “We know what they were trying to do, but what they did not know that in doing that, it doesn’t matter what your district lines look like when people are paying $4 a gallon for gas.”
“Well, it doesn’t matter what your district lines look like when farmers are paying all-time high prices for diesel fuel. ”
The Mobile Democrat has focused his remarks on the campaign trail on issues that he believes transcend political parties, as he’s careful not to turn off voters who might not be loyal Democrats, including disaffected Republicans.
“We don’t see Democrat or Republican voters,” Figures told Alabama Daily News after the Dothan rally. “What we see is voters. What we see are people who are having to deal with the ramifications and the consequences of what’s coming out of the White House, what’s coming out of Congress right now with the refusal to stand up and push back against this administration.”
Figures is running against State Rep. Rhett Marques, a Republican from Enterprise who easily won the GOP nomination despite a confusing primary election schedule resulting from the district changes.
He was encouraged to run by fellow Enterprise native U.S. Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., who has continued to support his campaign, including through political contributions from her leadership PAC.
“This is my home congressional district, and I know firsthand AL-02’s values, priorities, and opportunities,” Britt said in a statement to ADN. “I’ve been proud to support Rhett since he announced his congressional bid in August 2025 and know he’s the right person for the job. Rhett will be an effective fighter for Alabama families and give this district a strong seat at the table.”
Despite an R+7 rating from Cook Political Report, Republicans aren’t taking the seat for granted this year, especially in a fraught economic climate.
Speaking at a GOP rally at SweetCreek Farm Market in Pike Road last week, Marques, surrounded by other Alabama Republican candidates, framed the race as a battle of “craziness versus common sense.”
The line drew an “amen” from the Pike Road crowd, and Marques hopes it spurs Republicans to the ballot box.
“Do we want the DSA crazy communist socialists in charge of our country going in that direction, or do we want to keep the conservative Republicans in charge in Washington, D.C.?” Marques asked. “Well, this seat in Congressional District 2 will determine that.”
During his campaign stops, Marques has stressed the importance of flipping the seat to keep Republicans in control of the U.S. House, urging GOP voters in the state to not be apathetic about the congressional race ahead of the midterms.
“This is an opportunity for us to do something great,” Marques said at the Pike Road event. “Take a Democrat seat, make it Republican where it should be, and the way it was supposed to be, the way it has been, and the way it should be.”
On Monday, Trump also renewed his endorsement of Marques in a social media post as both parties and outside groups have invested about $10.7 million into the race, as of Tuesday, during the general election season, according to AdImpact.
“A Highly Respected State Representative, Businessman, and Civic Leader, prior to running for Congress, Rhett has dedicated his life to serving his Community,” Trump wrote.
The president then went a step further than an endorsement and moved to attack Figures in the same post, calling him “Reckless, Radical, and Dangerous!”
Framing the fight
Amid Trump’s sinking approval numbers nationwide, GOP candidates across the country, including Marques, are relying on a message outlining a fight against socialism and the “far left”.
And in a deep-red state, Republicans are extra hopeful that argument lands with voters to get them to the polls.
Marques often highlights his race first as a battle of “craziness versus common sense” even as inflation and cost of living remain the top concern for Alabama voters this year.
“We can have (Majority) Leader (Steve) Scalise continue leadership, or we can go the other direction toward Democrat socialists leading this country,” Marques said at a Dothan law enforcement roundtable campaign event alongside Scalise. “And that’s not the direction that we here in Alabama want.”
That argument struck a chord with cotton farmer Shep Morris as farmers face elevated diesel and fertilizer prices, worsened by the Iran war.
“People do a lot of fussing, but I think when they got to go in to vote, like I say, there’s not a choice B,” Morris said at Marques’ Pike Road rally. “Where do you want to go? You wanna become Cuba?”
Brady Johnson, Alabama GOP’s youth outreach coordinator, said fear of the socialist agenda gaining traction is also a motivating factor for young voters and one he likes to mention to young people across the state when they bring up costs at the pump.
“I tell them, we can survive high gas prices, but we can’t survive socialism,” Johnson told ADN at Marques’ rally.
Figures has distanced himself from the socialism label, and he and 85 House Democrats joined with Republicans to vote in favor of a resolution denouncing the horrors of socialism last November.
On the economic front, Cedric Coley, a member of several Republican groups in the state, said he understands that “gas and groceries, fuel and food” are at the forefront of voters’ minds.
He acknowledged that it’s hard to drum up support in light of those economic headwinds.
“(I) also know that some of the policies and actions from President Trump to Congress right now, people aren’t as enthusiastic and as active as we were two years ago,” Coley said, holding a plate of barbecue at Marques’ Sweet Creek rally.
“But I still feel as though the Republican Party has the best policies and principles to help us restore the American dream.”
Marques’ economic pitch hinges on what Republicans have already done, such as cutting taxes during his eight years in the Alabama Legislature or passing the massive tax and spending law in Congress last year.
On the campaign trail, Figures often takes current economic challenges head-on, which is easier to do when the other party is in power.
“Is gas way too high?” Figures asked the crowd at a Montgomery rally. “Kids, cover your ears. Is the gas way too damn high?”
“We know why. Because we are recklessly risking lives of American troops, including people who serve right here in Montgomery’s backyard at Maxwell, and a war in Iran for no reason is driving up gas prices, driving up fertilizer prices. It’s driving up everything. We can stop that.”
Booker, who campaigned alongside Figures in Dothan and Montgomery last Thursday, also appealed to the economic woes of Alabamians on the health care, agriculture and cost of living fronts.
“It’s a moral moment in America when you have in the state of Alabama good people doing the right thing, working hard, but are afraid that they can’t afford their rent and they can’t afford their prescription drugs,” Booker said at the Montgomery rally.
The New Jersey Democrat stuck to talking about pocketbook issues and civil rights history in his remarks rather than painting the congressional race as right versus left.
That economic case is central to Democratic efforts to get support in deep-red territory such as Dale County, which Trump won with about 76% of the vote in 2024.
Floyd Madrid, chair of the county’s Democratic Party, said it’s difficult to push out a Democratic message in such a deep-red county, but he said the energy is slowly shifting from his experiences on the ground and seeing national figures in south Alabama is invigorating for his local party.
“It’s been hard, and I think it’s hard because people are afraid to say they’re Democrats because they don’t want to offend their neighbors or the people they work with the people they shop with, and to me, it’s difficult,” Madrid told ADN after the Dothan rally. “But slowly but surely, I see a change.”
Boosting turnout
Besides the economic pitch, Figures’ campaign is heavily focused on boosting turnout, particularly among Black voters in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning parts of the Voting Rights Act. Bringing them to the polls in record numbers could be key to keeping his seat.
Under the previous map drawn by the courts, the 2nd District was about 48% Black. That shifted to 40% Black under the new lines drawn by the Legislature.
“We know that the deck has been stacked,” Figures said at a Montgomery rally, where voting rights was a key theme. “We know that the rules have been changed in the middle of the game, but we know what we gotta do. All we got to do is show up.”
U.S. Rep. Terri Sewell, D-Birmingham, also led with that message in the birthplace of the Civil Rights Movement. Her 7th Congressional District was also slightly changed under the new map, and referenced that Alabama Republicans are likely to go after her seat next.
“I want you to know that on this ballot is our democracy, and they’re counting on you staying at home,” Sewell said in Montgomery. “And I don’t know about you, but our ancestors fought too hard for us to stay at home.”
Speaking after Figures’ rally, Sewell expressed confidence that voters, especially in Montgomery, understand what’s at stake following the Louisiana v. Callais ruling and will follow through with their votes for Figures.
“The fact of the matter is that they think that we’re going to just not vote, and they’re absolutely wrong,” she told ADN. “And when we vote in the numbers that I know we can, especially if we over-perform right here in Montgomery. We will definitely bring back Shomari Figures to Congress.”
Marques also acknowledged that votes in Montgomery County, a Democratic stronghold in the larger red area, will need to be counterbalanced elsewhere in the district, such as the conservative Elmore County, which is split between the 2nd and 6th congressional districts.
During the May 19 primary, Montgomery County’s voter turnout was about 7 points higher than the state average, according to Alabama’s Secretary of State office.
“Elmore County going to vote will offset anything that happens in Montgomery, but it is going to take us all,” the Enterprise Republican said.
Though carrying Wiregrass counties in the election will be difficult for Figures, given the political reality, voters like Thelma Thomas at the Dothan rally are still eager to motivate as many voters as she can to turn out for Figures next Tuesday.
“I just want to get some more information to take out to people who are nonchalant to try to help give me some ammunition to make them excited because I’m already excited, but I need something to help somebody else that may not be,” Thomas told Alabama Daily News before the remarks.
Her friend Lillie Taplin said she’s been working hard to get everyone to the polls and it’s her “prayer” that voters will be energized to show up for Figures on Tuesday because what Republicans did “was wrong.”
On the Republican side, Henry County Sheriff Eric Blankenship, a supporter of Marques who attended the law enforcement roundtable with him and Scalise last week, acknowledged that GOP voters don’t have the energy behind them this year.
“Unfortunately, just the stuff going on in our country has kind of got people to where I don’t think they’re as motivated to get up to go out and vote as like they would be in some elections,” Blankenship said.
But “deep down the Republican core is still there,” he said.
And that’s the base Republicans are counting on throughout the 2nd District to actually head to the polls. To ensure they don’t stay home, the GOP is betting the battle pitch between the “far left” and “common sense” will concern Republicans enough to turn out.
Scalise, standing next to Marques and law enforcement officers in Dothan, emphasized that point.
“You’ve got the clearest choice, the widest difference between candidates right here,” Scalise said. “Nobody can afford to sit this election out.”’
And that contrast will produce the results to get Marques elected, he said.
”I think people are going to be out voting in record numbers,” Scalise told Marques, patting him on the arm.
The general election is Tuesday. Polls will open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.