The biggest news in Alabama politics over the weekend was President Trump’s Saturday night endorsement of Congressman Barry Moore.
I first clocked it when I saw Moore rocket on the Kalshi predictive market – from 15% to 79% to win – while Attorney General Steve Marshall dropped accordingly. Earlier in the week, I told a room full of business leaders I didn’t see the President endorsing in this race (yes, I whiffed on that one). And while a predictive market isn’t dispositive, it was a flashing red light that something real had changed.
Conventional wisdom formed fast: Trump endorses Moore, in part as Moore campaigns on being “the first elected official in the country” to endorse Trump. Game over. Pack it up. Next race.
But a closer look at the data tells a different story – one that suggests this primary is anything but settled.
The Numbers Everyone Missed
In The Alabama Poll’s December survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters, we found Attorney General Steve Marshall leading with 29.7%, Moore at 12.3%, and a whopping 46% undecided. That kind of undecided number, combined with a Trump endorsement, sounds like a nightmare scenario for Marshall.
Except there’s one detail buried in the crosstabs that most people are skipping right
past: Marshall was already beating Moore with Trump’s most loyal supporters – by roughly 2-to-1.
Among Republican primary voters who approve of both President Trump and his policies – the 72% hardcore base that represents his strongest supporters – Marshall leads Moore 32% to 14%.
Let that sink in for a second. Before Trump ever endorsed, Marshall had already consolidated Trump-aligned voters at more than twice the rate of Moore. This isn’t Trump lifting an unknown. It’s Trump endorsing a candidate who, at least as of December, was losing badly among the very voters you’d assume would be his natural home.
The Endorsement Has a Heavy Lift
For Moore to catch Marshall, the endorsement needs to do more than scoop up undecideds. It has to do something harder: move Trump voters who already prefer Marshall.
That’s possible, sure. But it’s not automatic. Marshall’s numbers suggest he’s built credibility with the Republican base: 47% favorable / 14% unfavorable. That’s not “problematic,” not “anti-Trump,” not “squishy.” That’s a candidate voters generally like – and have already started to choose.
Even among those hardcore Trump supporters, 43.5% are still undecided. That’s the pool Moore needs to win decisively. But here’s the catch: he’s fishing in water where voters have already shown a clear preference for Marshall when forced to pick.
Geography Still Matters
The crosstabs also point to a geographic problem for Moore. Marshall leads across multiple media markets, including – remarkably – a strong showing in the Dothan market, which sits squarely in Moore’s own congressional district. In the Mobile market, which Moore represents after the 2024 redistricting, Marshall maintains an edge there too.
So, Moore’s consolidation problem isn’t just ideological – it’s geographic. And that matters in a statewide race where you can’t survive as “the guy from one corner of Alabama,” endorsement or not.
And Moore’s image profile underscores the challenge: 25% favorable / 11% unfavorable, with 40% saying they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.
That’s the profile of someone who still needs to introduce himself – not someone who can assume a statewide sweep because of one social media post.
The 59% Question
Trump’s approval among Alabama Republican primary voters is 88%. That’s real power. And in our August data, 59% said they’re more likely to support a Trump- endorsed candidate.
That’s meaningful – but it’s not a knockout punch.
Why? Because a lot of Trump-loyal voters appear to have already leaned Marshall.
The endorsement absolutely gives Moore a boost with truly undecided voters, but it doesn’t automatically flip voters who already chose Marshall simply because they love Trump.
Marshall’s camp has a clean argument to make: You can support President Trump and vote for the most qualified candidate. With eight years as Attorney General, statewide name ID, and a solid conservative record, that message isn’t hard to sell.
The Runoff Scenario
I’m focusing on Moore and Marshall here because that’s where the endorsement’s biggest impact will land. With 46% undecided, it’s hard to see anyone hitting 50% on May 19. A June 16 runoff is very much on the table.
And if this becomes a two-person race, Marshall’s fundamentals look sturdy. He has:
- A statewide operation built over eight years as AG;
- The strongest favorability profile in the field;
- A 2-to-1 advantage (as of December) among Trump’s core voters;
- Geographic strength beyond any one region;
- The resources to compete through June.
Moore has Trump’s endorsement – no way around it, that’s a big deal. But he also must expand far beyond his current base, raise his statewide profile quickly, and persuade voters who already prefer Marshall to reconsider.
That’s not impossible. It’s just not the “race is over” storyline people want it to be.
What’s Next
This race is going to tighten. Trump’s endorsement will move numbers – the only question is how much, and where. Moore will get a bounce, and as advertising kicks into gear (likely around mid-March), we’ll start seeing what portion of the undecided pool actually converts.
But Marshall isn’t the paper tiger some are portraying. The crosstabs suggest he’s built a real coalition inside the Republican base – including among Trump’s strongest supporters. Alabama Republicans are staring down one of the most competitive (and expensive) Senate primaries in recent memory. Don’t believe anyone who tells you it’s already over. The data says otherwise.
Lowry is the founder and principal of The Alabama Poll and the founder of Backstop Strategies, a Washington, D.C.-based government affairs firm. A native Alabamian, he has more than 30 years of experience in politics and government and most recently served as chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Robert Aderholt.