During a visit to Alabama, Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter outlined how the Iran war is a major factor making solidly Republican congressional races more competitive this year.
Appearing on Alabama Public Television’s Capitol Journal, Walter explained the state of play for the upcoming 2026 elections, which are now just 36 days away. The Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama hosted the political analyst to headline its latest PARCA Speaker Series in Birmingham on Thursday.
“This year it’s pretty clear that there’s a wave that’s building and likely to hit the shore,” Walter told host Todd Stacy before the closed press event. “I think the biggest question we all have right now is how strong is the seawall that Republicans have built? Some cases by redistricting, in others by just our polarization and partisanship that has hardened over the last 10 or 15 years.”
President Donald Trump sailed to victory in 2024 with a winning message on the border and economy. Now, with the border effectively shut down, voters’ attention rests squarely on affordability this year, Walter explained.
Watch the full interview below.
Walter is an award-winning political analyst known for her accurate election predictions and objective reporting.
The most important voters to watch in this year’s tight races will be those who are Republican leaning and voted for Trump in 2024 because of their concerns about the economy.
“If they stay home, that’s not great for Republicans,” Walter said. “But it’s not as devastating as if they do show up and then pull the lever for a Democrat.”
An Emerson College poll released Thursday found that 60% of respondents believe that Trump’s economic policies are making the economy worse compared to 28% who say his policies are making it better.
To attract voters who are fed up with the economy in Republican districts and states, Walter said she’s seen candidates either place the blame elsewhere, such as on AI companies, or fully pull away from Trump when it comes to the Iran war.
“The other thing we’re seeing, especially in farm states, are Republicans coming out and saying ‘let’s put a pause on diesel exports so that we can bring the price of diesel down,'” Walter said. “That doesn’t look likely to happen. Although, we’ll see what the administration does about this.”
Alabama’s 2nd District
All eyes in the state are on Alabama’s newly redrawn 2nd Congressional District this cycle, which the Cook Political Report rates as likely Republican or an R+7 district.
Republican State Rep. Rhett Marques of Enterprise is trying to unseat U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Mobile, who faces a tough fight to keep his seat after redistricting.
“So this is a pretty big hill to climb,” Walter said of Figures’ campaign.
But she said Democrats are “very, very bullish on this district” as Figures has strong name recognition and a solid political base in Alabama. National Democrats have also released internal polling showing that the seat could stay blue.
Walter cautioned, though, that the 2nd District is “more challenging” than other districts in Texas and Florida that look to be in play this year, as those districts flipped from Biden to Trump in 2024, which is not the case for the new 2nd District in Alabama.