Stephen Boyd’s Capitol Hill briefing for Alabama’s business, financial, defense and government affairs executives.
Congress tackles unfinished business before Trump’s Return to Washington
Donald Trump’s election victory should have come as no surprise. Virtually all of the majority polling averages charted the race within the margin of error, meaning that statistically the election could go this way or that.
But even Trump’s allies admit some astonishment that it went his way in so many places and with so many types of Americans at once. Nearly every corner of the country and nearly every meaningful demographic shifted to the right. Only college educated women moved left, and even then, only just barely.
Trump becomes the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote in 20 years. “America has given us a powerful and unprecedented mandate,” he declared Wednesday.
National Democrats are now doing what losers do: engaging in a protracted post-mortem analysis of the data punctuated by unhealthy but irresistible finger-pointing and blame-gaming. They’re smart to avoid focusing too much on the candidate herself. Kamala Harris, while clearly an imperfect messenger, largely exceeded admittedly low expectations in an unprecedentedly strange election.
The national Democrats’ real problem for now are their policies. It turns out that an agenda that jacks up food and fuel prices while gifting free college to rich kids and fixating on every possible variation of identity politics is not a great way to win over working families in the Rust Belt—or anywhere else. The preferred pronouns of the grocery store clerk are of little concern to a mother with coupons.
Nor, it seems, are Trump’s legal issues, which will significantly dissolve when he is sworn in January 20 on the West front of the U.S. Capitol—the exact spot where rioters first fought police and breached the building on January 6, 2021.
By Inauguration Day 2025, the 119th Congress will have convened and be well into its internal reorganization and Trump will immediately enjoy a Senate under new GOP management. The Republican majority—led by then by someone other than Mitch McConnell for the first time in 18 years—will be just large enough that Trump can lose votes from moderate Republicans Lisa Murkowski (AK) and Susan Collins (MN) on controversial nominations to his administration and still get his pick. What a luxury.
As of this morning, Republicans look likely to keep their House majority—however narrow. True, a small margin empowers all sorts of factions to make demands, but it’s not hard to see even cantankerous rank-and-file Republicans falling in line on Trump’s priorities for a while. With a helpful House majority in place, Trump will have all the tools at his disposal to fully exploit that self-declared mandate.
But before all that, the 118th Congress must attend to some unfinished business. The Lame Duck session kicks off later today.
Lame Ducks come with a hint of intrigue. Members of Congress who are—by way of loss, retirement, or promotion—no longer tethered to the party line or the demands of voters sometimes act in mysterious ways. Some vote how they actually feel—gasp. Others horse trade to get that last bill across the finish line. A few probably won’t even show up for post-election work. A shift in the normal political incentive structure can change the voting math and produce interesting results.
You can make sense of the next few weeks by considering three buckets of Lame Duck work: a few high priority items that will demand attention, a host of “almost there” bills that could sneak through if stars align, and a great deal of behind-the-scenes work preparing for next year. And, make no mistake, nearly all of it can be influenced from Mar-a-Lago with a single call.
High Priority Items
- Federal Appropriations. This column has repeatedly documented the mess that is the FY2025 appropriations process, so no need to dive into the details. The bottom line is that the Continuing Resolution currently providing stop-gap funding expires December 20. By then, Congress will either need to pass all of the individual appropriations bills (unlikely), approve a massive omnibus spending bill (possible), or punt spending decisions until next year (looking more probable). Some Republicans like the latter option because it gives Trump direct influence in FY25 discretionary spending. Also, it’s the easiest.
- The FY25 National Defense Authorization Act. Congress has passed an annual defense bill for 64 years in a row and this year will be no different. Staff negotiators have been working to reconcile competing versions of the bill since early October. Members will start tackling some of the thornier issues as they return to town this week. Expect a final vote in mid-December.
- The Farm Bill. America’s farmers are struggling and a Farm Bill reauthorization is way past due, but there is little reason to think a final product comes together by December. Expect another extension.
- Judicial Appointments. The first Trump Administration is credited with remaking the federal bench with 234 judicial appointments, which Biden has countered by confirming 213 judges so far. 30 judicial nominees are pending in the Senate. Count on Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to ram through as many as possible.
Examples of “Almost There” Legislation
Though this list is far from exhaustive, bills like these could see the light of day in a lame duck session:
- Artificial Intelligence Legislative Package – The individual pieces of legislation themselves don’t establish comprehensive AI regulation, but they could lay groundwork that might be helpful in the future. A package of bills might hitch a ride on NDAA or other legislation.
- Anti-China – There are a host of anti-China bills that could be attached to National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). One of note: the BIOSECURE Act would largely ban federal contracting with Chinese biotech companies.
- Health Care – A number of Medicare provisions expire at the end of the year, and doctors accepting Medicare are scheduled to see a cut in their payment rates. That could theoretically reduce access to care for older patients. Congress can and probably will pass a temporary fix.
- Energy Permit Streamlining – Senators Manchin and Barrasso have a bill ready that would accelerate “the permitting process for critical energy and mineral projects of all types in the United States.” President Biden reportedly remains opposed.
- Emergency Disaster Supplemental—It’s unlikely, but there may be talk of emergency funding for some combination of farm relief, Ukraine and Israel defense, and Hurricane Milton and Helene recovery.
- Rail Safety Bill – Senator and soon to be Vice President JD Vance authored a bill to address rail safety after last year’s East Palestine, Ohio derailment. Now he might have the pull to get it passed.
Behind the Scenes Work
- Senate Leadership Elections—Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is stepping aside, setting up a contest between John Cornyn (TX), John Thune (ND), and Rick Scott (FL). Most Senate leadership elections are closed door affairs, but an outside signal from Trump today or tomorrow about his preferred partner in the Senate would make a difference. Keep in mind, it’s a secret ballot.
- House Leadership Elections & Rules Changes—Assuming Republicans hold on to a House majority, House leadership elections may be drama free with Mike Johnson staying on as Speaker and Steve Scalise holding the Majority Leader post. Closely intertwined changes to the conference rules may seem like inside baseball but they can have huge impacts on legislating. The big one to watch: any tweak to the Motion to Vacate that makes it more difficult to oust a sitting Speaker.
- Tax Bill Prep—Majority Leader Steve Scalise has promised action on the reauthorization of the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act within the first 100 days. Doing so will require significant work and negotiations now to prepare for one of 2025’s biggest legislative lifts.
- Presidential Transition—Finally, even as all of the above is occurring, scores of Members and staff are plotting what the new administration means for them. Expect a steady flow of Republicans from Capitol Hill, law firms, think tanks, and lobbying firms into the new administration. The transition is already underway.
Stephen E. Boyd is a Partner at Horizons Global Solutions. Previously, he served as a Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General at the U.S. Department of Justice, Chief of Staff for Alabama members in both the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, and as a Communications Director of the Senate Committee on the Judiciary. He resides in the Washington, D.C. area. Opinions expressed herein are his own. Contact Stephen at [email protected] or via X at @SEBOYD79 or via LinkedIn.