MONTGOMERY, Ala. – New polling shows an early lead for Steve Marshall in the race for U.S. Senate and offers other key insights as the 2026 campaigns begin to take shape.
The Alabama Poll, a long-running regular insider political survey from the 2000s, was recently re-established by Michael Lowry, an Alabama native with decades in government and campaigns who most recently served as chief of staff to Congressman Robert Aderholt. The new poll tests all major statewide races on the ballot in 2026 and gleans the popularity of Alabama’s leading officials.
In the race for U.S. Senate, current Attorney General Marshall leads with 37% of the GOP primary vote, compared to 16% for Congressman Barry Moore and 7% for retired U.S. Navy Seal Jared Hudson. A full 40% of voters remain undecided in that race.
Wes Allen holds an early edge in the race for lieutenant governor. When asked who they’d support in that race if the election were held today, the current secretary of state was the choice of 28%, with Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate winning 12% and 61% undecided.
The race for attorney general is wide open with 74% remaining undecided. Former Supreme Court Justice Jay Mitchell has a small lead with 13% saying they’d vote for him versus 7% choosing Blount County prosecutor Pamela Casey and 6% choosing Katherine Robertson, who has been Marshall’s chief legal counsel for his two terms as AG.
In the race for secretary of state, current State Auditor has a slight edge with 20% saying they’d support him and 16% choosing Caroleene Dobson, the attorney who won the GOP nomination for Congress in AL-2 last year. Another 64% remain undecided in that race.
The race for commissioner of agriculture is also wide open, with 77% saying they are undecided. Among the candidates, State Senator Jack Williams leads with 10% over Christina Woerner McInnis at 7% and Corey Hill at 6%.
“There’s still a long way to go before the primary and candidates have the opportunity to define not only themselves, but their opponents as well, based on these findings,” Lowry told ADN. “The successful candidate will be the one that can raise the funds to spread their message and seize control of the narrative over the next eight months.”
The poll did not include a ballot test for the governor’s race as U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville is the only Republican having raised enough money to meet the reporting threshold. Still, his favorability ratings show why the former Auburn coach is on a cruise path to the Governor’s Mansion. A full 74% of GOP primary voters have a favorable view of Tuberville, while just 23% view him unfavorably.
While not on the ballot, U.S. Senator Katie Britt is the most popular Alabama official in the survey. About 76% of Republican voters view her favorably compared to just 15% unfavorably.
And President Donald Trump remains immensely popular among Alabama Republicans with 88% saying they approve of the job he’s doing.
More on the Senate race
The race for U.S. Senate promises to be a heated one this cycle. At the moment, Marshall appears buoyed by strong name recognition and favorability after two terms as AG. Forty-seven percent of voters view him favorably while just 14% view him unfavorably and 21% have never heard of him. That compares to 25% who view Moore favorably, 11% who view him unfavorably and 40% who have never heard of him.
According to Lowry, there are more granular numbers that further illustrate Marshall’s early strength. Broken down by the three largest media markets, Lowry said Marshall enjoys a 48-10% favorability ratio in Huntsville, 50-15% in Birmingham and 33-18% in Mobile. Specific to Mobile, which Moore represents after the 2024 elections, his favorability ratio is 34-18%.
“Attorney General Marshall’s lead is particularly strong considering the time until the primary and the number of candidates running,” he said. “It’s clear that he’s known and trusted across the state and likely to see those advantages grow once the campaign begins in earnest. He’s in firm control of this race.”
The Alabama Poll
Top Alabama politicians and politicos remember having access to the Alabama Poll in the 2000s before it faded. Lowry said his efforts to reestablish it are partly based on knowing how valuable accurate and reliable polling data is for officials, their staffs and trade associations. He plans to make the data available regularly on a subscription basis.
“After more than 30 years in politics and government service I was looking for a chance to build my own thing from the ground up and I believe that polling for associations and companies is an underserved market due to cost,” Lowry said. “I’ve created a subscription model for The Alabama Poll that allows greater opportunity at incredible overall savings for politically inclined clients. It’s an exciting venture and allows me to bring my expertise and knowledge of Alabama politics to a greater audience I believe.”
Those interested in the service can visit www.alabamapoll.com for more information.
The poll, conducted between August 24-26, surveyed 600 likely May 2026 Republican primary voters across Alabama with a margin for error of +/-4%. A multi-modal approach was employed via live telephone calls and self-administered text messages.