There are 77 days between now and May 24, when Alabama voters get their first shot at choosing their party nominees for office. That’s an eternity in terms of all the many things that can happen to upend a race but, as any campaign veteran will attest, it can and will go very quickly.

In many ways, right now is among the most important times in Alabama’s marquee races for U.S. Senate and governor. Candidates are up on air with TV ads introducing themselves and, in some cases, going after other candidates. Outside groups are starting to make their presence felt with ads of their own and other messaging efforts intended to boost their favored candidate or take out the one they oppose.

The latest polling from Alabama Farmers Federation showed the Congressman Mo Brooks leading a pretty tight Senate field in February. The same poll showed Gov. Kay Ivey with a commanding lead on her primary opponents, but not out of reach of avoiding a runoff.

If the Republican Primary Election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you vote for: Katie Britt, Mo Brooks or Mike Durant?

Candidate	%
Mo Brooks	33.7%
Katie Britt	28.5%
Mike Durant	24.4%
Undecided	13%

 

If the Republican Primary Election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for: Kay Ivey, Tim James or Lindy Blanchard?

Candidate	%
Kay Ivey	54.7%
Tim James	11.45%
Lindy Blanchard	9.79%
Undecided	21.89%

 

The ALFA poll surveyed 600 likely Republican voters and carries a margin of error of 4%. It was conducted by Cherry Communications, a Florida based survey research firm, on Feb. 2 -6.

 

This poll is old now. It’s out of date. But it does show a baseline of how to look at the following analysis on campaign advertising.

Right now is when numbers are moving. Those undecided voters, whether they know it or not, are starting to form opinions from this barrage of advertising. In the coming weeks polls will be taken that offer a glimpse of who has moved in the right direction and who hasn’t, leading donors and political action committees to make tough decisions about what to do going down the stretch. Yes, right now is an important time indeed.

Inside Alabama Politics has reviewed the latest financial reports and other online records to offer ADN Insiders a clearer view of how much money is being spent and for or against whom.  The money represents the best barometer of how many voters are seeing and hearing about a candidate.

A review of Senate race TV & radio spending

The biggest spender in the GOP primary race for Senate is Mike Durant. In fact, it’s not really close.

According to IAP’s analysis of advertising data, Durant’s campaign has spent $1,970,864 in television and radio advertising to date. A pro-Durant super PAC called Alabama Patriots PAC has spent almost as much on TV and radio supporting Durant with $1,820,595. That’s total positive spending of more than $3.7 million, a whopping figure in an Alabama primary so far. Durant has also had at least two mail pieces targeting high propensity GOP voters, though that spending is not yet accounted (probably due to it being on the Q1 report). Mail is a smart medium, especially for unknown candidates, if you can afford it.

The Katie Britt campaign is second in television and radio spending at $919,515. There are two pro-Britt super PACs running ads promoting her candidacy. Alabama Christian Conservatives Fund has spent $239,540 in pro-Britt ads and Alabama Conservatives Fund has spent $1,179,604. That brings total pro-Britt TV and radio advertising to $2.3 million, an impressive amount that is still dwarfed by Durant. Britt hasn’t done any mail, but she did benefit from a statewide billboard ad campaign that was also paid for by an outside group.

The Mo Brooks campaign has spent $45,160 on TV and radio advertising to date, which isn’t much at all. However, Brooks is bolstered by multiple supportive PACs, including the Club for Growth Action PAC that has spent $1,748,281 and the School Freedom Fund that has spent $376,993, all boosting Brooks. That puts total pro-Mo spending at $2,125,274 on TV and radio. The Huntsville congressman also has some drag to consider. Alabama Futures PAC, which exists to oppose Brooks, has spent $1,438,809 in negative attack ads against Brooks.

So, to review:

• Pro-Mike Durant TV and Radio: $3,791,459 
• Pro-Katie Britt TV and Radio: $2,338,696 
• Pro-Mo Brooks TV and Radio: $2,125,274 
• Anti-Mo Brooks TV and Radio: $1,438,809

What are the takeaways?

First, we now know how Mike Durant has leapfrogged from virtual unknown into becoming a top contender in the race. His “Black Hawk Down” story is obviously a good one and he has spent generously promoting it. One could argue that Durant should be doing better than polling in the mid-20s given his advantage on air and in the mail and, depending on how voters are reacting, he might be when the next survey is taken.

Katie Britt has to be happy that, with almost $1.5 million less in total spending than Durant, she is either leading or tied with him in most polls. The bulk of Britt’s advertising has been over the last two weeks as opposed to the fall and winter when she had little presence on TV or radio. So, it will be interesting to see how her numbers move.  If no previous poll has really taken into account her paid messaging, she could be in for a bump.

Congressman Brooks came into this race as the frontrunner and remains so until a credible poll shows otherwise. He was never going to win with fundraising or television advertising, but rather by leveraging his Trump endorsement as the golden ticket among Alabama GOP voters. The problem with that is it takes money to make voters hear the message and many of them the last two weeks have instead heard the old 2015 clip of Brooks criticizing Trump. Club has come to Brooks’ rescue with an impressive investment over the airwaves, second only to the pro-Durant super PAC. Brooks doesn’t necessarily need to gain but rather hold serve in this next round of polling to show that he can withstand attacks and is still the frontrunner.

Believe it or not, plenty of money still remains on the sideline in this race. Many groups, constituted or not, are still watching to see which horse they want to back down the stretch. For that matter, a certain former president and his cabal of consultants are watching as well. This next few weeks may matter as much or more than the final weeks when so much hay is already in the barn.

 

A review of TV and radio spending in the race for Governor 

The spending on TV and radio advertising in the Republican race for governor doesn’t come close in scope to the Senate race. However, the trends are interesting and, like the Senate race, make the next round of polling all the more impactful for the future of this primary.

The biggest spending in television and radio advertising for the month of February wasn’t incumbent Kay Ivey, but challenger Tim James. According to the latest campaign finance reports, James spent more than $523,000 on radio and TV, most of it with Red Eagle Media.

Lindy Blanchard came in second, spending about $477,000 on the air with Virginia-based Multi Media Services Corporation.

Ivey has spent $424,400 on radio and television advertising through Ohio-based Flexpoint Media Inc.

The challengers have spent the last month messaging on masking in schools, trying to make the case that Ivey should have been more aggressive in stopping local school districts from continuing their masking policies. Now they are switching to attacks over the gas tax, attempting to seize on gas prices that are historically high and probably going higher. It will be key to see in the next round of polling whether those attacks landed with much effect.

It’s not that easy to land an attack on Ivey. The gas tax she supported and signed into law was passed with overwhelming support of the GOP Legislature, plus it’s just hard to argue that a 10-cent tax is much of a dent in a two-dollar price hike caused by a war that is on TV every night. Lots of parents are fed up with masks, but a lot of that blame lies with local officials from whom the mandates were imposed. Blanchard and James need these lines of attack to work, so it will be interesting to see if polling reflects that.

 

Debbie Long resigns from Ethics Commission

Inside Alabama Politics / Alabama Daily News has confirmed that Alabama Ethics Commission member Debbie Long has resigned. When contacted and asked the reasons why, Long politely declined to offer details, referring to any public statements commission Chairman John Plunk might make.

Her discretion is respectable and understood. Still, her departure cannot be random. Long was just appointed to the commission less than a year ago. She is well known and respected in Alabama political circles, having worked with Johnny Johns at Protective Life Corporation for many years. She retired from Protective two years ago and didn’t need to take on the responsibility of an Ethics Commission post. That is to say, it is unlikely she would agree to serve only to change her mind without some intervening reason.

And this comes after years of drama at the commission, including December’s revelation in IAP that the Attorney General’s office pulled its Deputy Attorney General status from an Ethics Commission staff attorney amid ongoing disagreements over how commission staff investigates and refers cases. More details became public when WRBC Fox 6’s Jenn Horton reported that the AG found major errors and “misrepresentations of facts” by staff in the investigation of former Montgomery Police Chief Ernest Finley.

IAP previously posited that the situation at the Ethics Commission could be coming to a head, either through legislation or litigation. Long’s sudden departure will only highlight the need to get to the bottom of what’s going on at the commission for Gov. Kay Ivey and legislative leaders. Remember that it took some pretty extraordinary circumstances for Ivey to step in with the Pardons and Paroles situation (twice). Sources tell IAP this is a different can of beans, but Long’s resignation is definitely raising eyebrows around the Capitol complex.

 

When will a second ARPA special begin

The Alabama Legislature has already had two special sessions specifically dedicated to allocating federal American Rescue Plan Act funding. One took place last September, when lawmakers put about $400 in ARPA funds toward the prison construction plan. The other took place in January, when $772 was allocated toward broadband internet expansion, rural water and sewer projects and reimbursements to hospitals and nursing homes. But that was only the first half of Alabama’s $2.2 billion share in ARPA funding. The rest is set to arrive this summer, leaving the state with another $1.1 billion to allocate.

Some lawmakers have made the case that there’s no rush to appropriate these funds. In fact, the Legislature could wait until the next Regular Session in March 2023,  giving them a year to negotiate the funding. Others have argued that, given the supply chain situation and finite resources, it is still best to pass a plan quickly so as to get ahead of other states that might be spending money on the same things. Plus, special sessions have worked well to pass big, complicated issues in the last few years.

The prevailing thought, particularly from the Executive Branch, is that another special session will be needed. Sources tell IAP that late August or early September is the most likely time to expect a special session on “ARPA 2.” That will be after the primaries, after the runoff and after the summer conferences, including BCA’s annual governmental affairs conference scheduled for July 29-31 this year.

Don’t expect it to last long, though. Rank-and-file lawmakers are worn out from a fairly extraordinary grind over the last year or so. The special sessions and the three day legislative weeks have put a strain on many members, many of who spend time away from their families and business while in Montgomery.

A late move on taxes

Senate President Pro Tem Greg Reed recently tipped his hand on what to expect from the Legislature in its remaining days. On Capitol Journal, Reed said his caucus is working on a package of five measures aimed at providing tax relief to families, retirees and businesses. Eliminating the state’s business privilege tax was one of the proposals, he said, but he didn’t mention the others by name.

Expect this to be a big theme down the stretch of the session. Many Republican lawmakers are facing primary challenges, as is Gov. Kay Ivey. All would like to notch some big wins on tax cuts in an election year when revenues are at historic highs. Passing and signing into law a big package of tax cuts would serve them all well as campaigns get underway in earnest as session adjourns in April. Think big signing ceremonies with marching bands and dancing bears.

 

What’s next for Jeff Coleman?

Once and would-be 2nd District congressional candidate Jeff Coleman is continuing his fight to get on the ballot for the Republican Primary. As a refresher, a three judge panel of federal appellate judges ordered the Alabama Legislature to redraw district lines and delayed party qualifying from January 28 to February 11. On February 7, the Supreme Court blocked that order saying it came too close to the primary election. On February 10, Coleman submitted his qualifying paperwork but was not allowed to qualify by the ALGOP.

The party interprets the high court’s ruling as blocking the lower court’s order completely as if there never was a delay or separate deadline. Secretary of State John Merrill has said it’s up to the parties, not him, to determine candidate qualifying. Coleman has argued to Merrill and to Attorney General Steve Marshall that this interpretation isn’t correct and that state law requires both parties to have the same qualifying date. The same three-judge panel that originally moved the qualifying declined Coleman’s request to issue a clarification on which date should count as the qualifying deadline given the confusion. In its order, the panel hinted that Coleman’s only solution may lie with the higher court.

“While there may be some disagreement as to the exact scope of the Supreme Court’s stay, it is not a matter that this court can resolve,” the judges wrote.

The parties must certify their qualified candidates to the state by tomorrow.

The question that has Alabama politicos scratching their heads is why, if he was so invested in running for Congress again, would Coleman wait until Feb. 10 to qualify. He tells IAP the plan all along was to qualify on the last day with a big roll out of his revamped, trucking-heavy campaign on Super Bowl weekend. When the court delayed the deadline, it delayed their entry to give them even more time to plan the launch.

Should his legal options deteriorate this week, that will prove to have been a fateful decision. For the moment, Coleman is still pressing the ALGOP leadership, Merrill and Marshall “to do what’s right and just.”

Potpourri

Rachel Bunning in January started as Vice President of External Affairs at the Women’s Foundation of Alabama. Bunning most recently worked as the top communicator for the Alabama Community College System but was perhaps best known for her work in the Alabama Legislature running comms in the Speaker’s office. The Women’s Foundation recently underwent a branding change from representing just the Birmingham area to the whole state. President Melanie Bridgeforth has said bringing on Bunning with her legislative and communications acumen is key to that transition.

Jordan Howard recently started in the Finance Department working for Finance Director Bill Poole. He’s returning home to Alabama after a spending years in Washington D.C. working within the state’s congressional delegation, including for former Congressman Bradley Byrne and his successor Congressman Jerry Carl. Poole’s role within the Ivey administration is greater in scope than most other finance directors have been as he also serves as a senior adviser, thus the need to bring on quality political staff.

Brad Bolton is the incoming chairman of the Independent Community Bankers of America. Bolton is currently CEO of Community Spirit Bank in Red Bay, which has assets of $182 million. He’ll become only the second Alabama banker to lead the group.

Congrats to all!